Colts -7.5 vs Jets
Saints -3.5 vs Vikings
Divisional Round January 16, 2010
Arizona + 7 at New Orleans
A lot of talk this week has been centered around Warner’s ability to elevate his performance in the playoffs…and with good reason I think. Has he ever had a subpar playoff performance? In a playoff career that now includes a double digit number of games, that is awfully impressive. New Orleans walked a tight rope to get to 13-0 and then lost 3 in a row to bring their record much more in line with their play than 16-0 would have been. The Saints may very well win this game, but I don’t see much reason not to take the seven points being offered by this line.
Ravens +6 at Colts
Finally! The Ravens came through with a performance last week to validate all of us out there touting them as perhaps the scariest team in the league. They completed 4 passes and won in a blowout. That is mind-boggling. This week, the yards on the ground will be tougher to come by and the opponent will field a complete set of NFL wide receivers. Still, the regular season matchup between these two teams was extremely close and I just can’t get over how dominant the Ravens looked last week. I might be a fool, but I’ll take Baltimore to go into Indy and at least keep it to a one score game.
Cowboys +2.5 at Vikings
Look, I’m an Eagles fan. I’ve watched intently as the Cowboys have just played 2 of their 3 best games of the year. Maybe I’m just shell-shocked, but it seems to me that the Vikings do many of the same things on offense that the Eagles do…and those, well they didn’t work so great. Now, maybe the Vikings will let Peterson try to win this game, and maybe he will. However, I can’t get over the fact that Tony Romo is playing mostly error free and the Vikings secondary is ripe for the picking. Cowboys to win this game.
Chargers -7 vs Jets
Of all the games, this might be the one where objective analysis points most towards the underdog covering. The Jets match up perfectly with the Chargers. The Chargers cannot defend the run in any way. The Chargers are completely reliant on their passing offense, and the Jets have by far the best pass defense in the league. The Chargers are completely inneffective on the ground, an area of relative vulnerability for the Jets. All that said, I think this is the week that it all comes crashing down for the Jets. The matchups for them to exploit are almost too obvious. The Chargers know they can’t defend the run and that Sanchez, while he played well last week, is not going to destroy them. Surely they can do something schematically in all their time of preparation to neutralize the Jets rushing attack, right? Similarly, it’s plain as day that Revis can shut down anyone, including Vincent Jackson. But can’t Norv, one of the greatest play callers of our time, come up with an offensive game plan featuring Gates and Floyd? It just seems like the Jets approach to this game is so appallingly obvious that the Chargers should be able to use that to their advantage in preparing this week. At the very least, I’ve talked myself into believing as much.
Don’t Call it a Comeback January 9, 2010
As far as my picks were concerned, this was a poor season. I lost early and often. I lost games where I thought my team should have covered, and I lost games where my team never even threatened to cover. About midway through the season I became discouraged to the poing that I mostly gave up and stopped picking altogether. Whether or not that was wise, I’m not sure. Whether or not it was a decision I’m proud of and would make again if I could go back in time, probably not. In any event, the past is past.
As far as the NFL season itself is concerned, it was a fairly exciting year with many teams having roller coaster seasons. It’s playoff time, and I feel poised to return to the land of NFL picking.
Jets at Bengals, or Statistical Superiority at Conventional Wisdom
There are a lot of performance based indicators pointing towards the Jets in this one. Using most objective measures, they have performed better than the Bengals over the course of this season. Their defense is the best in the league, and I’m not sure there is even a team that would dare to claim otherwise. Yes, Mark Sanchez is somewhat terrible, but their running game has compensated to make an overall very respectable offense. Now, people like to say that rookie quarterbacks make for bad postseason picks and that road teams are at a severe disadvantage in the playoffs (even moreso than the regular season). But, even if those are true, those two insights ignore the specifics of this game. Mark Sanchez can play poorly and the Jets could still win by double digits with running and turnovers. The Bengals may be at home, but they still only have one wide receiver, and he is still not as dominant as the cover man opposing him. When it comes down to ‘hard’ factors such as season long performance versus ‘soft’ factors like experience and venue, I will back the hard factors every time. Jets +2.5 at Bengals
Eagles at Cowboys, or Overall Quality at Matchup Advantages
In a vaccuum, the Eagles are probably the better team. If the Eagles and Cowboys played every team in the NFL once, the Eagles would probably wind up with a better record. However, the Cowboys seem to be built specifically to dismantle the Eagles. The Cowboys line swallows up the Eagles smallish defensive ends, Romo is elusive enough to burn the Eagles on a mega blitz, Witten against Trotter is a joke in terms of speed and agility, the Cowboys defensive ends get upfield and make McNabb uncomfortable even when they aren’t sacking him, and the Cowboys know all of the Eagles tendencies. That being said, Romo and Wade haven’t had any playoff success (albeit in a very small sample). The Eagles were exceedingly bland on both sides of the ball last week, and while I personally don’t think holding back last week would have made any sense, it certainly seemed that way (especially on defense). There is a real chance that Andy Reid has some things in store this week (VICK?!?!?) that will catch the Cowboys totally off guard. Bottom line, despite the matchup specifics, the Eagles are the better team and are getting more than a field goal. Eagles +3.5 at Cowboys.
Ravens at Patriots
Strength versus strength. Ravens D vs Pats O. I think the popular opinion is that both the Ravens D and Pats O have fallen off from their dominant performances of past years, but I don’t really see it. Both units are still among the very best in the league. When it comes to Baltimore O vs Pats D, it is hard to see how Baltimore doesn’t have a distinct advantage. Then again, the Pats are 8-0 at home. Then again, the Ravens were a dropped pass away from beating them at home earlier this year. I’m really not sure how this game might play out at all. Both teams are extremely dangerous and capable of winning the Super Bowl. That is not something I would even remotely say about the other AFC matchup this week. Seems like a toss-up to me, so I’ll once again go with the underdog. Ravens +3.5 at Patriots
Packers at Cardinals
The biggest mismatch of the day in terms of team strength, and it is decidedly not in favor of the home team and defending NFC champs. Ignore the debacle that was last week’s drubbing of Arizona by these same Packers. Arizona didn’t try, and that’s fine. The point is, things might not look too different when they do try. While Arizona’s D was a hot topic early in the season, it faded severely and the Packers can put up numbers in bunches. Sure, Arizona could manage to complete three bombs to Fitzgerald and steal this game, but the possibility of Fitz replicating his performance in last year’s playoffs does not seem like a real reason to pick the Cardinals in a situation where they are otherwise completely overwhelmed. If the Packers were favored by 7, my conscience would force me to pick the Cardinals, but I’d still believe the Packers would cover. Packers -1 at Cardinals.
There you have it, four road teams in the first round. Not only do I think all four will cover, but I think all four might win. If not, hopefully three or two at the fewest. Should be an exciting weekend.
NBA 12/8/2009 December 8, 2009
Nuggets -3.5 at Bobcats
Raptors -7 vs Timberwolves
Bucks +12.5 at Celtics
Grizzlies +7.5 vs Cavs
Bulls -7 vs Nets
Kings +8.5 at Hornets
Mavericks -3.5 vs Suns
Magic -7 at Clippers
Season Record: 140-146-1 (0.490)
NBA 12/7/2009 December 7, 2009
Trail Blazers -3 at Knicks
Jazz -2 vs Spurs
Sixers +6.5 vs Nuggets
Warriors +7.5 at Thunder
Season Record: 139-143-1 (0.493)
NBA 12/6/2009 December 6, 2009
Knicks -5.5 vs Nets
Cavs -7 at Bucks
Pistons -3 vs Wizards
Heat -1.5 at Kings
Suns +9.5 at Lakers
Season Record: 135-142-1 (0.487)
NBA 12/5/2009 December 5, 2009
Sixers +5.5 at Bobcats
Bulls -6 vs Raptors
Jazz -7.5 at Timberwolves
Nuggets +3.5 at Spurs
Suns -11.5 vs Kings
Mavericks -4 vs Hawks
Trail Blazers -4.5 vs Rockets
Clippers -2.5 vs Pacers
Magic -9 at Warriors
Season Record: 132-136-1 (0.493)
NBA 12/4/2009 December 4, 2009
Wizards -3 vs Raptors
Hawks -10 vs Knicks
Celtics -4 at Thunder
Bulls +12.5 at Cavaliers
Mavericks -6 at Grizzlies
Pistons -2.5 vs Bucks
Hornets -9.5 vs Timberwolves
Bobcats -3.5 at Nets
Jazz -8 vs Pacers
Heat +12.5 at Lakers
Season Record: 129-129-1 (0.500)
NBA 12/3/2009 December 3, 2009
Spurs -1.5 vs Celtics
Rockets -2.5 at Warriors
Heat +8.5 at Nuggets
Season Record: 129-126-1 (0.506)
Jack's Sports Picks 